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All issues · Middle East · No. 33

The Abraham Accords

Can Arab-Israeli normalization produce regional stability while the Palestinian question remains unresolved?

Beginning in 2020, several Arab states established formal relations with Israel without requiring prior resolution of Palestinian statehood. The agreements reversed a long-standing regional formula, and their durability is now being tested.

For decades the Arab League position held that normalization with Israel would follow a settlement of the Palestinian question, not precede it. The Accords inverted that sequence, and were accompanied by security, technology, and commercial arrangements with the United States.

Supporters and critics agree the agreements changed regional alignments. They disagree about whether that change primarily reflects shared concern about Iran, commercial opportunity, or American inducements offered to each signatory.

Subsequent regional conflict has tested the agreements. They have generally survived, though normalization has proceeded unevenly and public opinion in signatory countries has often been less favorable than official policy.

POSITION 1 / 3

A durable breakthrough

Direct relations between former adversaries create interests in stability that ideology alone cannot override.

  • Trade, tourism, and security cooperation build constituencies for continued peace.
  • Shared concern about Iran gives signatories overlapping strategic interests.
  • Decades of linking normalization to a settlement produced neither.
  • Additional states joining would further isolate rejectionist actors.

POSITION 2 / 3

Stability without resolution

Agreements between governments that sidestep the underlying dispute leave the source of conflict intact.

  • Palestinians were not party to agreements that affect their future.
  • Public opinion in signatory states has lagged well behind official policy.
  • Deals contingent on arms transfers and security guarantees carry their own costs.
  • Regional conflict has repeatedly strained the agreements since signing.

POSITION 3 / 3

Expand and condition

Normalization is worth extending, but future agreements should carry commitments on the unresolved questions.

  • Further normalization could be tied to specific steps on Palestinian governance.
  • Regional economic integration creates leverage that did not previously exist.
  • Multilateral frameworks are more durable than bilateral inducements.
  • Both normalization and a political settlement can be pursued at once.
Terms you will hearFind your officials →
Normalization
Establishing formal diplomatic and economic relations between states.
Arab Peace Initiative
A 2002 proposal offering normalization in exchange for Israeli withdrawal and a Palestinian state.
Two-state solution
A framework establishing an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.
Qualitative military edge
A U.S. policy commitment to Israel maintaining a technological advantage over regional militaries.
What people actually disagree aboutFind your officials →
  1. Does normalization make a Palestinian settlement more or less likely?
  2. Are the Accords built on shared interests or on American inducements?
  3. What would cause a signatory to reverse course?
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