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All issues · Economy & Fiscal Policy · No. 01

Federal Debt and Deficits

How much should today's government borrow against tomorrow's taxpayers?

The federal government spends more than it collects most years. The gap is a deficit; the accumulated total is the national debt. Nearly everyone agrees the trajectory matters, and almost no one agrees on which combination of spending cuts, tax increases, or growth should close it.

A deficit is a single year's shortfall. The debt is the sum of past deficits, held by domestic investors, foreign governments, the Federal Reserve, and federal trust funds. Interest on that debt is itself a growing line in the budget, and it competes with every other priority.

Most federal spending is not set annually. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and interest run on autopilot under permanent law and consume the majority of the budget. Annual appropriations, which include defense and most domestic agencies, make up a smaller share than most people assume.

Economists distinguish between the raw dollar figure and debt as a share of the economy. A debt that grows more slowly than GDP is generally considered sustainable even if the dollar total rises. Disagreement centers on where the danger threshold sits and whether one exists at all.

POSITION 1 / 3

Reduce spending first

The problem is that government has grown beyond what the economy can support, and raising taxes to match it entrenches the growth.

  • Higher taxes tend to be absorbed by new spending rather than deficit reduction.
  • Entitlement programs are the mathematical driver; anything that avoids them is not a real plan.
  • Rising interest costs crowd out both public investment and private borrowing.
  • Fiscal restraint preserves the ability to respond to a genuine emergency.

POSITION 2 / 3

Raise revenue first

Federal revenue has been cut repeatedly while obligations stayed constant, and the shortfall reflects an under-taxed economy rather than an over-served public.

  • Revenue as a share of GDP sits below what current commitments require.
  • Spending cuts deep enough to close the gap alone would fall hardest on those least able to absorb them.
  • Higher earners and corporations capture a large share of income growth and can bear more.
  • Programs like Social Security and Medicare are widely popular and reflect real public preference.

POSITION 3 / 3

Prioritize growth

The ratio matters more than the level. Policy should aim at expanding the economy rather than shrinking the numerator.

  • Debt is sustainable indefinitely if the economy grows faster than interest costs.
  • Austerity during a downturn can shrink revenue and worsen the ratio.
  • Public investment in infrastructure, research, and workforce can pay for itself over decades.
  • Demographics and productivity drive the long-run picture more than annual appropriations.
Terms you will hearFind your officials →
Mandatory spending
Outlays required by existing law, not set by annual appropriations. Includes Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.
Discretionary spending
Outlays Congress sets each year through appropriations bills, including defense and most agencies.
Debt-to-GDP ratio
Total debt measured against the size of the economy, used to judge sustainability.
Debt ceiling
A statutory cap on total borrowing, separate from decisions about how much to spend.
What people actually disagree aboutFind your officials →
  1. Is there a level of debt that becomes dangerous, and how would we recognize it in advance?
  2. Should a generation be able to finance its own consumption with borrowing repaid by the next?
  3. If both spending cuts and tax increases are needed, what is a fair ratio between them?
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